What Is The Easiest Way For A 13-Year-Old To Cum Ben Bernanke: The New Era of the Fed

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Ben Bernanke: The New Era of the Fed

It is the economic news of the week that President Bush has appointed Ben Bernanke, B.Econ, Ph.D. as the new President-designate of the Federal Reserve System. Mr. Bernanke – if approved by the Senate Banking Committee – will take over the powerful post from Alan Greenspan early next year. It is almost certain, though not guaranteed, that Mr. Bernanke will pass the Senate test. Once that happens, a new chapter will open in how the Federal Reserve will direct the largest economy on the planet and, by reflection, the economies of the major industrialized nations. The purpose of this post is to explore what we can expect in the new Era of the Feds.

For those of us who make it a point to keep up to date on economic matters, Ben Bernanke is perhaps most famous for his article entitled ‘Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility’ written in February 2000, where Prof. Bernanke explores the implications of asset pricing. volatility for the management of monetary policy. Bernanke is also famous for his comments about deflation (as opposed to inflation), a destabilizing period of falling prices, made in his two and a half years as Fed Governor. Bernanke is best known for the renewed concern that the US economy could be destroyed by the kind of deflation that has crippled Japan for many years. In a November 2002 address to the National Economic Club in Washington, Bernanke raised the issue and outlined a series of tools at the Fed’s disposal to “make sure ‘it’ doesn’t happen here” as he subtitled his speech. The “Bernanke Option”, as it has been described, would be used in the event that short-term interest rates fell to near zero and the Central Bank needed other ways to stimulate the economy.

In practicality, Bernanke seems to be the apt successor of the legendary Greenspan. But there are some subtle differences of opinion between the outgoing and the (hopefully) incoming President that may dictate some differences in the Feds’ approach to handling economic issues, especially monetary policy. Bernanke is a Monetarist – but not as much as Greenspan. Bernanke prefers an explicit inflation “target”, while Greenspan has followed a more flexible policy without a stated target. Bernanke is a theorist while Greenspan (like Paul Volcker, his predecessor) is a practical man. But perhaps more important of them all is the fact that Bernanke is a firm believer in free trade, much more so than Greenspan.

Overall, these differences may signal some policy changes. As they relate to Canada and real estate, here are the most important:

1.) Free Trade: NAFTA was not always welcomed in the United States and sometimes led to political attrition and differences with Canada. Under Bernanke’s mandate, it is reasonable to expect a relaxation of the sometimes protectionist and isolationist approach of the United States in favor of more integrated North American trade and exchange between the two neighbors. My American readers and friends will forgive me if I theorize that, in the final analysis, it is in the best political interest of the American juggernaut to have a prosperous, economically stable neighbor to the North so that American attention and energies can be devoted to more. urgent actions, such as the end of the ever-ending military occupation of Iraq, the never resolved political question of Taiwan with China, the threatening anti-Americanism trumpeted by the new leadership elite in Iran, the economic antagonism created by the swelling economic expansion; of China and the ceaseless rivalry for economic supremacy so coveted by many leaders of the new Europe.

2.) Interest rates: Bernanke favors an inflation-targeting approach. More specifically, he made statements arguing in favor of a 2 percent inflation target in two years. If he is to follow through, we can expect a tightening of the Feds control over the money supply as well as short-term interest on Treasury bills, with the end result of a more valuable US dollar and higher interest rates. This will result in an influx of foreign capital into the United States and a strengthening of the greenback, with a proportional softening of American exports. This move, which may not be entirely welcomed by the Bush Administration which, since 2003, “punishes” the detractors of the American intervention in Iraq by letting the dollar depreciate in order to prevent imports – something that Germany and France and, to to some extent, Canada still needs to digest.

3.) Real estate: specifically as it relates to my field of practice, the Fed can affect the real estate market both in terms of resale prices and new construction inventory by changing the balance between demand and supply. More specifically, higher asset and liability interest rates – if enforced by Bernanke – can have the double negative effect of shifting available capital to high-yield savings and, at the same time, increasing mortgage rates, with the end result of limiting demand and undercutting . prices Bernanke, therefore, will have to walk the fine line of balancing his inflation-targeting approach with the reality of the industry. Greenspan was a master of the “let it be” philosophy, faithful to the axiom of “there is no cure when no cure is necessary”. Finally, it should be noted that inflation – like death – is an inevitable fact of life that cannot be avoided.

Professor Bernanke is 51 years old and was born on December 13, 1953, in Augusta, Ga. He has a BA in Economics, 1975, from Harvard University; and Ph.D. in Economics (summa cum laude), 1979, from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He is married to his wife Anna and has two children.

Luigi Frascati

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